Umhlaba ukuphela kweplanethi esinesiqiniseko sokuthi singasekela inhlobo yezobuchwepheshe esezithuthukile, kepha akunakiwe kangako ukuthi kungenzeka, eminyakeni engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezi-4.5, umhlaba wethu usukhiqize impucuko engaphezu kweyodwa esezimbonini.
Isazi sezulu uGavin Schmidt, umqondisi we-NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, kanye no-Adam Frank, usosayensi wase-University of Rochester, banqume ukuphenya le nkolelo futhi babhala ndawonye esihlokweni esibizwa "Umbono weSilurian: kungenzeka yini ukuthi kutholakale impucuko yezimboni kwirekhodi lokwakheka komhlaba?"
Igama elithi "Silurian" libolekwe ochungechungeni lwezinganekwane zaseBrithani "Doctor Who", okubhekise kumjaho wezilwane ezihuquzelayo owaphila eMhlabeni izigidi zeminyaka ngaphambi kokuvela komphakathi wethu.
Ishicilelwe kwi-International Journal of Astrobiology, leli phepha lichaza uhlobo lwesiginesha uhlobo lwenkhono lobuchwepheshe olungashiya ngemuva. USchmidt noFrank basebenzisa umkhondo we-Anthropocene, inkathi yamanje lapho imisebenzi yabantu ithonya izinqubo zeplanethi, njengesimo sezulu kanye nokuhlukahluka kwemvelo, njengomhlahlandlela walokho esingakulindela kweminye imiphakathi.
Kuyafaneleka ukukhumbula ukuthi noma yiziphi izakhiwo ezinkulu ezivezayo kungenzeka zihlale zigcinwe ngaphezu kwamashumi ezigidi zeminyaka yokusebenza komhlaba, lokhu kusebenza kokubili empucukweni yabantu nakunoma yibaphi abangaphambi kwe- "Silurian" Earth.
Esikhundleni salokho, uSchmidt noFrank baphakamisa ukufunwa kwezimpawu ezicashile, njengemikhiqizo evela ekusetshenzisweni kwamafutha, imicimbi yokuqothulwa kwabantu abaningi, ukungcoliswa kwepulasitiki, izinto zokwenziwa, ukuphazanyiswa kwentuthuko yezolimo noma ukugawulwa kwamahlathi kanye nama-isotopu asebenzisa imisebe yenuzi okungenzeka kubangelwe ukuqhuma kwenuzi. .
"Kufanele ungene emikhakheni eminingi ehlukene bese uqoqa ongakubona," kusho uSchmidt. “Kubandakanya i-chemistry, sedimentology, geology nazo zonke lezi ezinye izinto. Kuyathakazelisa ngempela ”, wanezela.
Isibalo seDrake
I-athikili yososayensi ixhumanisa umbono weSilurian ne Isibalo seDrake, okuyindlela engenzeka yokulinganisa inani lempucuko ehlakaniphile eMilky Way, eyakhiwa isazi sezinkanyezi esidumile uFrank Drake ngo-1961.
Okunye kokuguquguqukayo okuyinhloko ku-equation yisikhathi lapho impucuko ikwazi ukudlulisa amasiginali atholakalayo. Isizathu esihlongozwayo sokungakwazi ukuxhumana nohlobo lwangaphandle ukuthi lesi sikhathi sokuguquguquka kwesikhathi singaba sifushane ngokwedlulele, mhlawumbe ngenxa yokuthi imiphakathi ethuthuke kwezobuchwepheshe iyazilimaza noma ngoba ifunda ukuhlala kahle emazweni ayo.
Ngokusho kukaSchmidt, kungenzeka ukuthi isikhathi esibonakalayo sempucuko sifushane kakhulu kunokuphila isikhathi eside kwangempela, ngoba thina, ubuntu, asikwazi ukuhlala isikhathi eside ngokwenza izinhlobo zezinto esizenzayo. Siyama ngoba sikhuphule phezulu noma sifunde ukungakwenzi.
Noma kunjalo, ukuqhuma kwemisebenzi, imfucuza kanye nenqwaba yamathrekhi, empeleni, yisikhathi esifushane kakhulu. Mhlawumbe kwenzeke izikhathi eziyizigidi eziyinkulungwane eMkhathini, kepha uma kuphela iminyaka engama-200 njalo, besingeke sikubone lokho.
I-Silurian Hypothesis
Umbono ofanayo uqinisile kunoma iyiphi impucuko edlule ebingase ivele eMhlabeni, kuphela ukuwa kube ngamanxiwa noma ukunciphisa imisebenzi esongela impilo yayo ewusizo. Kukhona izifundo ezingezona ezicashile abantu abangazithola kule ndlela ehlukanisiwe okungukuthi, ngemuva kwakho konke, inguquko yezimboni zemantra yakudala yokuziphendukela kwemvelo: zivumelanise noma zife.
Lokhu, kukaSchmidt noFrank, kungenye yezingqikithi ezisemqoka zeSilurian hypothesis. Uma singacabanga ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi asiwona amaTerran okuqala ukukhiqiza impucuko esezingeni eliphezulu kwezobuchwepheshe, mhlawumbe singakubona kangcono ukungazinzi kwesimo sethu samanje
"Umqondo ngendawo yethu eMvelweni kube ukuqhubekela phambili kokuziqhelelanisa kwethu ocwaningweni," kusho uSchmidt, ecaphuna izinkolelo eseziphelelwe yisikhathi, njengemodeli yokuma komhlaba ye-Universe. “Kufana nokuhoxa kancane kancane embonweni wobugovu, futhi umbono weSilurian uyindlela nje eyengeziwe yokwenza lokho.”
"Kumele sizimisele futhi sivulele zonke izinhlobo zamathuba, uma sikwazi ukubona lokho uMkhathi okusinika khona," Kuphetha uSchmidt.
